DA text
Uniqueness: Status quo de-escalation holds; no major conflict.
Card: Analyst D 2023 — International Security Monitor.
Link: Aff signals reduced resolve/control → adversaries test boundaries.
Card: Analyst E 2022 — Strategic Studies Quarterly.
Internal Link: Testing leads to spiral dynamics/miscalculation.
Card: Analyst F 2018 — Journal of Conflict.
Impact: Regional war risks great-power entanglement.
Card: Analyst G 2020 — Foreign Policy Quarterly.
Answer blocks (Aff)
No Link: Our policy increases predictability and legal pathways—no resolve loss.
Link Turn: Stability improves as black markets disappear → fewer confrontations.
Uniqueness press: Trend toward restraint is fragile—DA uniqueness is weak.
Impact Defense: Containment mechanisms/alliances prevent escalation.
Weighing: Rights/lives now are irreversible; DA is low probability and reversible.